Umlotha wesoda udlala indima ebalulekile ezimbonini eziningi, kanti imboni yengilazi ithatha cishe u-60% wokusetshenziswa komhlaba wonke.
Ingilazi yeshidi iyisigaba esikhulu kunazo zonke emakethe yengilazi, kanti ingilazi yezitsha iyisigaba sesibili ngobukhulu emakethe yengilazi (Isithombe 1). Ingilazi yokulawula ilanga esetshenziswa kumaphaneli elanga iyindawo ekhula ngokushesha kakhulu yesidingo.
Ngo-2023, ukukhula kwesidingo saseShayina kuzofinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu elingu-10%, kanye nokukhula okuphelele kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.9. Isidingo somhlaba wonke ngaphandle kweShayina sehle ngo-3.2%.
Umthamo wokukhiqiza umlotha wesoda uzohlala uzinzile phakathi kuka-2018 no-2022, njengoba amaphrojekthi amaningi okwandisa ahleliwe ebambezelekile ngenxa yobhubhane lwe-COVID-19. Eqinisweni, iShayina yalahlekelwa ngokuphelele umthamo womlotha wesoda phakathi nalesi sikhathi.
Kodwa-ke, ukukhula okubaluleke kakhulu esikhathini esiseduze kuzovela eShayina, okuhlanganisa amathani ayizigidi ezi-5 omkhiqizo omusha oshibhile (wemvelo) ozoqala ukwanda maphakathi no-2023.
Zonke izinhlelo zokwandisa ezinkulu kakhulu e-US muva nje zenziwe yiGenesis, ezoba namandla ahlangene angamathani angaba yizigidi ezingu-1.2 ekupheleni kuka-2023.
Ngo-2028, kulindeleke ukuthi kufakwe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-18 omthamo omusha emhlabeni jikelele, kanti ama-61% avela eShayina kanye nama-34% avela e-US.
Njengoba amandla okukhiqiza ekhula, isisekelo sobuchwepheshe naso siyashintsha. Isabelo somlotha wesoda wemvelo emandleni amasha okukhiqiza siyakhula. Isabelo sawo emkhiqizweni womhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele ku-22% ngo-2028.
Izindleko zokukhiqiza umlotha wesoda wemvelo ngokuvamile ziphansi kakhulu kunezomlotha wesoda wokwenziwa. Ngakho-ke, izinguquko esimweni sobuchwepheshe nazo zishintsha ijika lezindleko zomhlaba wonke. Ukuncintisana kusekelwe ekutholakaleni, futhi indawo yamandla amasha izothinta nokuncintisana.
Umlotha wesoda uyikhemikhali eyisisekelo esetshenziswa ekusetshenzisweni kokugcina okuhlobene kakhulu nokuphila kwethu kwansuku zonke. Ngakho-ke, ukukhula kwesidingo somlotha wesoda bekulokhu kuqhutshwa yiminotho ethuthukayo. Kodwa-ke, isidingo somlotha wesoda asisaqhutshwa ukukhula komnotho kuphela; umkhakha wezemvelo nawo unegalelo elikhulu ekukhuleni kwesidingo somlotha wesoda.
Kodwa-ke, amandla aphelele e-soda ash kulezi zinhlelo zokusebenza zokugcina kunzima ukubikezela. Amathemba okusebenzisa i-soda ash kumabhethri, kufaka phakathi amabhethri e-lithium-ion, ayinkimbinkimbi.
Kunjalo nangengilazi yelanga, futhi izinhlangano zamandla zomhlaba wonke zihlala zibuyekeza izibikezelo zazo zamandla elanga ziye phezulu.
Ukuhweba kudlala indima ebalulekile ekukhiqizweni komlotha wesoda, njengoba izikhungo zokukhiqiza azihlali ziseduze nezindawo ezidingeka kakhulu, futhi cishe ingxenye yesine yomlotha wesoda uthuthwa phakathi kwezifunda ezinkulu.
I-United States, iTürkiye kanye neShayina ngamazwe abalulekile embonini ngenxa yethonya lawo emakethe yokuthumela impahla. Kubakhiqizi baseMelika, isidingo esivela ezimakethe zokuthumela impahla kwamanye amazwe siyinto ebaluleke kakhulu ekukhuleni kunemakethe yasekhaya evuthiwe.
Ngokwesiko, abakhiqizi baseMelika bakhulise umkhiqizo wabo ngokwandisa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, besizwa yisakhiwo sezindleko ezincintisanayo. Izimakethe ezinkulu zokuthumela zifaka phakathi lonke elase-Asia (ngaphandle kweShayina nezwekazi laseNdiya) kanye neNingizimu Melika.
Naphezu kwesabelo sayo esiphansi kakhulu ekuhwebeni komhlaba wonke, iShayina inomthelela omkhulu emakethe yomhlaba wonke yesoda ash ngenxa yokushintshashintsha kokuthunyelwa kwayo kwamanye amazwe, njengoba sesibonile kakade kulo nyaka.
Njengoba kuphawuliwe ngenhla, iShayina yengeze umthamo omkhulu ngo-2023 nango-2024, okwandisa ukulindela kokunikezwa ngokweqile, kodwa ukungeniswa kweShayina kwafinyelela amazinga aqopha umlando engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2024.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe e-US kukhuphuke ngo-13% unyaka nonyaka ezinyangeni ezinhlanu zokuqala zalo nyaka, kanti inzuzo enkulu ivela eShayina.
Ukukhula kwesidingo eShayina ngo-2023 kuzoba namandla kakhulu, kufinyelele cishe kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-31.4, okubangelwa kakhulu yingilazi yokulawula ilanga.
Umthamo womlotha wesoda eShayina uzokhula ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-5.5 ngo-2024, udlule okulindelwe esikhathini esifushane kwesidingo esisha.
Kodwa-ke, ukukhula kwesidingo kuphinde kwadlula okulindelwe kulo nyaka, njengoba isidingo sikhula ngo-27% unyaka nonyaka engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2023. Uma izinga lokukhula lamanje liqhubeka, igebe phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo eShayina ngeke lisaba likhulu kakhulu.
Izwe liyaqhubeka nokwandisa umthamo wokukhiqiza ingilazi yelanga, kanti umthamo ophelele kulindeleke ukuthi ufinyelele cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingama-46 ngoJulayi 2024.
Kodwa-ke, iziphathimandla zaseShayina zikhathazekile ngomthamo wokukhiqiza ingilazi yelanga oweqile futhi zixoxa ngezinqubomgomo ezivimbelayo. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umthamo we-photovoltaic waseShayina ofakiwe ukhuphuke ngo-29% unyaka nonyaka kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMeyi 2024, ngokusho kwe-National Energy Administration.
Kodwa-ke, imboni yokukhiqiza amamojula e-PV eShayina kubikwa ukuthi isebenza ngokulahlekelwa, okubangela ukuthi ezinye izitshalo ezincane zokuhlanganisa zingasebenzi noma ziyeke ukukhiqiza.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, iNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia inenani elikhulu labahlanganisi bamamojula e-PV, iningi labo liphethwe ngabatshalizimali baseShayina, abangabaphakeli ababalulekile emakethe yamamojula e-PV ase-US.
Ezinye izikhungo zokuhlanganisa kubikwa ukuthi ziyeke ukukhiqiza muva nje ngenxa yokuthi uhulumeni wase-US usule iholidi lentela yokungenisa impahla. Izindawo eziyinhloko zokuthumela ingilazi yelanga yaseShayina emazweni aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia.
Nakuba ukukhula kwesidingo somlotha wesoda eShayina sekufinyelele amazinga aqopha umlando, ukuguquguquka kwesidingo somlotha wesoda ngaphandle kweShayina kuhlukahlukene kakhulu. Ngezansi umbono omfushane wesidingo kulo lonke elase-Asia naseMelika, ochaza ezinye zalezi zindlela.
Izibalo zokungenisa zinikeza inkomba ewusizo yezitayela zokufunwa komlotha wesoda kulo lonke elase-Asia (ngaphandle kweShayina nezwekazi laseNdiya) ngenxa yokwehla kwamandla okukhiqiza endawo.
Ezinyangeni zokuqala ezinhlanu kuya kweziyisithupha zika-2024, ukungeniswa kwempahla esifundeni kufinyelele kumathani ayizigidi ezimbili, okungaphezu ngo-4.7% kunangesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule (Isithombe 2).
Ingilazi yelanga iyona ebangela ukufunwa komlotha wesoda kulo lonke elase-Asia, kanti nengilazi yeshidi nayo ingase ibe negalelo elihle.
Njengoba kuboniswe kuMfanekiso 3, kunezinhlelo eziningana zamandla elanga kanye nengilazi eyisicaba ezihleliwe esifundeni ezingase zengeze cishe amathani ayisigidi esidingo esisha se-soda ash.
Kodwa-ke, imboni yengilazi yelanga nayo ibhekene nezinselele ezithile. Izindleko zamuva nje ezifana nokulwa nokulahla ugesi kanye nezindleko zokuphikisana ezibekwe yi-United States zingase zithinte ukukhiqizwa kwamamojula e-photovoltaic emazweni afana neVietnam neMalaysia.
Izindleko zezingxenye ezenziwe eShayina zidinga abakhiqizi kula mazwe ukuthi bathole izingxenye ezibalulekile kubaphakeli abangaphandle kweShayina ukuze bagweme intela ephezulu. Lokhu kwandisa izindleko zokukhiqiza, kwenza kube nzima uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka, futhi ekugcineni kuzonciphisa ukuncintisana kwamaphaneli e-PV aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia emakethe yase-US.
Kubikwa ukuthi izinhlaka eziningana zokuhlanganisa amaphaneli e-PV aseShayina eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia zimise ukukhiqiza ngoJuni ngenxa yentela, kanti kungenzeka ukuthi ukukhiqiza kumiswe ezinyangeni ezizayo.
Isifunda saseMelika (ngaphandle kwe-US) sincike kakhulu ekungenisweni kwempahla. Ngakho-ke, izinguquko ezijwayelekile ekungenisweni kwempahla zingaba yisibonakaliso esihle sesidingo esiyisisekelo.
Idatha yakamuva yokuhweba ikhombisa ukuguquguquka okungekuhle kokungenisa kwezimpahla ezinyangeni ezinhlanu kuya kweziyisikhombisa zokuqala zonyaka, kwehle ngo-12%, noma amathani angu-285,000 (Isithombe 4).
INyakatho Melika, kuze kube manje, ibone ukwehla okukhulu kakhulu, kwehle ngo-23% noma amathani ayi-148,000. IMexico ibone ukwehla okukhulu kakhulu. Umkhakha omkhulu kakhulu wesidingo somlotha wesoda eMexico, ingilazi yezitsha, wawubuthakathaka ngenxa yesidingo esibuthakathaka seziphuzo ezidakayo. Isidingo somlotha wesoda sisonke eMexico akulindelekile ukuthi sikhuphuke kuze kube ngu-2025.
Ukungeniswa kwempahla evela eNingizimu Melika nakho kwehle kakhulu, ngo-10% unyaka nonyaka. Ukungeniswa kwempahla e-Argentina kwehle kakhulu, ngo-63% unyaka nonyaka.
Kodwa-ke, njengoba kuhlelwe ukuthi kuqalwe ukusebenza amaphrojekthi amaningana amasha e-lithium kulo nyaka, ukungeniswa kwe-Argentina kufanele kuthuthuke (Isithombe 5).
Eqinisweni, i-lithium carbonate iyona ebangela isidingo esikhulu somlotha wesoda eNingizimu Melika. Naphezu kombono omubi wakamuva ozungeze imboni ye-lithium njengesifunda esingabizi kakhulu, umbono wesikhathi esiphakathi nesikhathi eside muhle.
Amanani okuthumela ngaphandle abahlinzeki abakhulu abonisa izinguquko ezimakethe zomhlaba wonke (Isithombe 6). Amanani eShayina avame ukushintshashintsha kakhulu.
Ngo-2023, intengo ejwayelekile yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe yaseShayina yayingu-$360 nge-metric ton FOB, kwathi ekuqaleni kuka-2024, intengo yayingu-$301 nge-metric ton FOB, kwathi ngoJuni, yehla yaya ku-$264 nge-metric ton FOB.
Phakathi naleso sikhathi, intengo yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe yaseTurkey yayingu-$386 nge-metric ton FOB ekuqaleni kuka-2023, yayingu-$211 kuphela nge-metric ton FOB ngoDisemba 2023, kanye no-$193 kuphela nge-metric ton FOB ngoMeyi 2024.
Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMeyi 2024, amanani okuthumela kwamanye amazwe ase-US abe yisilinganiso sama-$230 nge-metric ton FAS, ngaphansi kwentengo yonyaka emaphakathi yama-$298 nge-metric ton FAS ngo-2023.
Sekukonke, imboni yomlotha wesoda isanda kubonisa izimpawu zomthamo oweqile. Kodwa-ke, uma ukukhula kwesidingo samanje eShayina kungagcinwa, ukuphakelwa ngokweqile okungenzeka kungenzeka kungabi kubi njengoba kusatshwa.
Kodwa-ke, okuningi kwalokhu kukhula kuvela emkhakheni wamandla ahlanzekile, isigaba esinzima ukusibikezela ngokunembile amandla aso okudingakala ngokuphelele.
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Ingqungquthela Yomhlaba Wonke Yomlotha Wesoda (bheka kwesobunxele) izohlanganisa ochwepheshe bomhlaba wonke kanye nabaholi bezimboni abavela kuzo zonke imikhakha yemakethe ukuze bezwe izibikezelo zochwepheshe zemboni yomlotha wesoda kanye nezimboni ezihlobene, baxoxe ngokuguquguquka kwemakethe, izinselelo kanye namathuba, futhi bahlole umthelela wokushintsha kwezitayela zemakethe yomhlaba wonke, okuhlanganisa nendlela imakethe yaseShayina ezowuthinta ngayo umhlaba.
Abafundi be-Glass International bangathola isaphulelo esingu-10% kumathikithi enkomfa besebenzisa ikhodi ethi GLASS10.
UJess unguMhleli Oyisekela we-Glass International. Ubelokhu efunda ukubhala ngokudala nangobungcweti kusukela ngo-2017 futhi waphothula iziqu zakhe ngo-2020. Ngaphambi kokujoyina i-Quartz Business Media, uJess wasebenza njengomlobi ozimele ezinkampanini nasezincwadini ezahlukahlukene.